 |
Archived "Best Posts"
April 27 - June 4, 2006

|
Risk and Reward
Investing in

|
 |
Link here for Most Recent "Risk and Reward" Best Posts
This archive includes EXCELLENT reports on the June 1, 2006 Annual Shareholders Meeting
Especially the comprehensive reports by dboone, XDX and KAJO7710 below

Posted by: Gamco
In reply to: None
Date:6/4/2006 8:56:21 PM
Post # 157175
IDCC Annual Stockholders Meeting
Great reviews from many of the others that attended! Thank you. I enjoyed meeting other stockholders and enjoyed renewing the friendships from previous meetings. This Internet community has brought together an amazing amount of talent, education, expertise and flare to discuss this unique Interdigital investment.
What I did not hear addressed during the formal meeting was anything involving “acquisitions”. There was nothing stated about “targeted companies” or “patent portfolios”. Recent conference calls indicated these were possibilities.
Concerning Mr. Merritt’s statement about the “$1.50 per unit” and “actually getting just north of that now”: [From my hearing] he did NOT say AVERAGE of “$1.50 per unit”. He said, “Our current EXPERIENCE is $1.50 per unit, we are actually getting just north of that now.” Parse this statement as you will, but to me, he is communicating that IDCC currently received in cash an amount in excess of $1.50 per unit after any quantity discounts that may be available. This was NOT being presented as some type of goal. He went on to project that over time this per unit amount was expected to decline. I assume this would be the cumulative effect of declining prices for user equipment together with OEM beginning to qualify for quantity discounts that do not apply at current levels of production.
Concerning Mr. Campagna: Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but for me, the hand the Interdigital was dealt could only become a winning hand by playing out the game in a non-traditional fashion. In my opinion, few managers could have taken this company to where we are today. JMHO
My confidence level in IDCC’s ability to become successful in achieving their new mantra of “receiving royalty on all 3G devices” has been confirmed by my attending this years meeting.
I have attended the past three ASM and each year I have gone the evening prior to the meeting to be with some loyal IDCC investors at an informal gathering. Be aware, IDCC has a very interesting group of shareholders and I always enjoy getting to know them and share views on IDCC.
And just for fun, you may like to know that Osoesq sings some traditional Irish songs very well! LOL
Gamco
Posted by: revlis
In reply to: lastchoice who wrote msg# 157121
Date:6/4/2006 9:48:51 AM
Post # 157124
the last time IDCC closed higher was Mar 27, 2000 at 30.12
Posted by: TFWG
In reply to: None
Date:6/3/2006 3:28:47 PM
Post # 157086
IDCC has a min. value of $195 or $313...take your pick!
By: tfwg in IDCC | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 03 Jun 06 3:25 PM
Boardmark this board | InterDigital Communications Msg. 12422 of 12422
Let's make the ultra concervative assumption that all of IDCC's revenue in 2010 is based on IP only, or approximately $850M.
Now let's also assume operating expenses are $50M HIGHER than today per year.
And let's also assume 54M remains the shares outstanding.
$850M less $200M ='s $650M, tax effected by by 35% or $227.5M and your earnings after taxes are $422.5M. Divide that by 54M and EPS equals $7.82 per share. Put a P/E ratio of 25 on that and IDCC is worth $195 per share [or $313 if you use 40]!
Now if you add in revenue from ASICs, Modems, and other and one might think this company is WORTH MORE THAN $35, or even $60 per share. Now I ask everyone: Who really wants to sell this company for $35 or $60?
Hmmmmmmmm???????????
MO, Bob
Posted by: sjratty
In reply to: None
Date:6/3/2006 1:14:11 PM
Post # 157075
First Albany Estimate Change
somehow this was missed yesterday (this news is dated June 2)
First Albany Capital raised its estimates on InterDigital Communications Corp. to reflect new guidance and the impact of InterDigital adding Panasonic as a paying 3G licensee. For 2006, it raised its estimates to $477.7 million from $212.7 million. EPS estimates increase to $3.90 from $3.78. First Albany rates InterDigital at strong buy.
Posted by: dndodd
In reply to: sinnet14 who wrote msg# 156998
Date:6/2/2006 4:00:49 PM
Post # 156999
$29.25 is a new 52-week high.
New closing high too.
Posted by: spencer
In reply to: nieves who wrote msg# 156985
Date: 6/2/2006 3:32:16 PM
Post # 156986
The company is expected to sign several $100 million-plus deals during the rest of the current year, Hilliard Lyons adds.
SEVERAL? Samsung would be one. Wonder who else he is thinking of?
Posted by: nieves
In reply to: None
Date:6/2/2006 3:28:59 PM
Post # 156985
InterDigital Communications downgraded to "long term buy"
Friday, June 02, 2006 11:12:58 AM ET
Hilliard Lyons
NEW YORK, June 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Hilliard Lyons downgrade InterDigital Communications Corp (IDCC.NAS) to "long term buy." The target price is set to $34-$39.
In a research note dated June 1 and published this morning, the analysts mention that the company's share price has appreciated 55% year-to-date, as compared to a 1% decline in the NASDAQ Composite. InterDigital Communications has settled its dispute with Nokia, recognized revenues from Panasonic and licensed several deals with LG Electronics so far in the quarter, the analysts say. The company is expected to sign several $100 million-plus deals during the rest of the current year, Hilliard Lyons adds.
Recommend this article to a friend
http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1289475.html

Don't miss the following posts reporting on the June 1st Annual Shareholders Meeting
by dboone, XDX and the 3 part one by KAJO below! (WL ed)
Posted by: dboone
In reply to: mschere who wrote msg# 156989
Date:6/2/2006 4:21:48 PM
Post # 157001
Greetings to all: I am just back to ATL from KOP and yesterday's ASM. I continue to be impressed with our investment. I know many have posted regarding the meeting, here are my observations.
1. The meeting seemed more reserved than last year. I think there are two reasons. One, the animus with the shareholders (including myself) was not present. I think the objective, positive accomplishments of the past year made us all feel better. The change in management was a welcome change which has served us well in the first year. Secondly, from public and private discussions, I sense that management is holding their cards close to the vest. It is my impression that last year they were open in discussing where they wanted to go. This year, I think they are in the middle of discussions with a number of our potential customers and they are therefor properly concerned with disclosures. Last year, nothing concrete to worry about. This year??? I think they must be progressing nicely or they wouldn't worry.
2. WM acts as a very secure and confident CEO. I think he feels confident in his company motto that they are looking to be paid on every 3g terminal unit. In post mtg discussions with BM, I confirmed that this includes MOT, that the verdict of the 90's has no effect on 3g, and that they are focused on "all 6 of the majors". HC is HC, what more can you say. My impression is that HC is all about HC and WM is all about IDCC and his team. Thank goodness for WM.
3. Per unit royalties for 3g should reasonably be north of 1%. There was some confusion after the meeting about what was said. I heard two distinct comments: we are receiving more than $1.50 per unit on 3g, which is in the 1% license fee area; Our 3g contributions are of greater value, indicating that we should reasonably receive 1.5 to 2% royalty on 3g products. Is that what the other attendees heard? Present 3g units average $200. They will naturally come down in price.
4. Our 2010 revenue projections are reasonably in the 800-850 million area. It could be higher. From the discussions, I don't think management would make these statements/projections if they didn't think they could solidly deliver.
5. Post mtg I asked JP about the continuing question some have regarding LG. As I understand it, LG is paid on 3g to a threshold level. Below the level, we get the disclosed amount no matter what. Above the threshold, we will receive additional revenue. The LG agreement is a five year deal. After 5 years, they will require an additional license. I gathered that we are very likely to receive additional revenue after the 5 year period. I also sense that exceeding the unit threshold during the 5 years could happen. How likely? I don't know. Go LG!
6. I discussed the poision pill. It expires at the end of this year, 2006. Management will review the propriety of another such protective measure. My sense: we will have another poision pill. We don't "need" a partner, we are not hurting in any way, and I don't get the feeling that management will do anything to compromise our ability to receive full share value as our 3g market and revenue continue to grow. BM told me that he wants to maximize shareholder value, and I believe him.
7. NOK: the resolution of the 3g up to the payment date is a good thing. 1st, the 3g numbers are small. 2nd, no license agreement means no arbitration and the milk toast result. With no license agreement, and infringer is liable for much greater damage.
8. Panasonic: Great for us. The admission of infringement is important to their payment of fees, but of greater import to others in licensing discussions and, perhaps more importantly, as proof of infringement later in litigation, if that becomes necessary.
9. 802 products will pay us revenue independent of the 3g units used in the revenue projection graph. The size of the 802 market is uncertain, but they seem excited about the convergence of 802 and cellular. As 802 is incorporated into cellphones, the value of our inventions increases which should help raise our royalty percentage. As 802 independently expands, we will have a separate "product" line. Last year, BM told me that he was very excited about the 802 market and it's overall effect on wireless. This year, he gave me the same impression, although more closely guarded.
10. Employee Stock Options: The overhang of employee stock options has a defined end. The options are no longer used and their value spans into the 30's. Perhaps 7 million in the money, but any dilution is more than offset by our 300 million buy-back.
11. On the issue of the buy-back. During the meeting RF was asked where we stood. He reiterated the 20 million comment from the last conference call. RF says they won't tell us where they are until earnings anouncement durning the next conference call. My thought is this makes sense, especially if they are taking advantage of dips and if they are concerned about deals in the works.
I thought it was a solid, no surprises meeting. Quieter than the last. More stayed. I think this is an indication of the confidence they have in our future.
I hope this was helpful and not too repetative of others. Best to all, D
Posted by: xdx
In reply to: None
Date:6/1/2006 6:36:01 PM
Post # 156861
Report from Annual Meeting
I was at 2006 annual stockholders’ meeting in KOP and these are my notes taken during the meeting as well as some comments from discussions held with (CEO) Bill Merritt and (COB) Harry Campagna immediately following the formal meeting:
During formal meeting
Sherwin Seligsohn, founder of IDCC was introduced by Harry
94% of eligible shares voted.
Following Harry’s introduction, Bill Merritt was introduced. He stated he was pleased with the first six months and will strive to improve the next six. He then went into his presentation, much of which he took from our annual report-
He referenced 4 main areas of focus (Categories):
1 – Finance
2 – Business Strategy
3 – Operations
4 _ Corporate governance
Interdigital will now shift focus onto the product side. We have provided key contributions to standards, and Bill highlighted:
- Our leadership in the 802 development (DR, note, no follow up #s)
- TDMA and CDMA
- Participating in LTE (beyond 3G) again DR, note the reference to LTE
We invented much in wireless technology; have contributed to the standards; and have licensed our patents on reasonable terms, and NOW we are going to shift focus on selling our technology through product solutions. We are driven to complete the dual modem (2g/3g) ASIC for license and sale by the end of the year. We are one of the few companies able to demonstrate HSUPA technology.
Bill then went on to discuss our future revenue (he displayed that infamous chart with the possibilities of $.50, 1.00, 1.50, and $2 per unit. He focused upon the year 2010, where he foresaw us having 60% of the total 3G sales worldwide covered at $1.50 per unit and generating annual revenue for us at $800,000,000, most of which will then be falling to the bottom line.

Regarding China, Bill emphasized we have been very active in China for the past 5 years, building relationships; that we hope to rollout TDSCDMA this year in meaningful volume and that we will deal both directly with China and with those providers from outside China selling their product to the Chinese.
During the question and answer period John VG tried to establish the anticipated % of royalty we hoped to receive in 3G. He successfully got Bill to state 2G was targeted between 1 and 2 % and that we have achieved that level in many cases. He further stated that we are hoping to have the 3G rate a “little higher” than 2G.
Following the formal meeting, I approached Bill regarding the potentially of a buyout by either Cisco or IBM/Microsoft partnership, all of which have enough cash to do it. When I mentioned that today’s US Today published a list of Companies with big cash pileups, which included Microsoft/IBM and Cisco, it also showed Motorola with $14.6 billion, and a potential suitor in my mind. He did appear to me to have been surprised by that Motorola information having been published. I also asked about the course of action the Board intended to take regarding the end of year expiration on the Poison Pill. He stated that will be reviewed for reinstatement by the end of the year.
I then cornered Happy Harry C and zeroed him in on commenting about the upcoming Poison Pill expiration. He also stated they would review this before expiration so as to have a smooth transition for the next period.
I was very pleased with everyone’s input and the way they delivered. It revalidated my confidence in my investment.
Posted by: lastchoice
In reply to: KAJO7710 who wrote msg# 156834
Date: 6/1/2006 6:37:58 PM
Post # 156862
UB - on SAMSUNG. If they want to compete against Motorola, IDCC could help them quicker and better than they could do it inhouse.
ohh ahh
Billion--with a 'B'
Posted by: Data_Rox
In reply to: KAJO7710 who wrote msg# 156834
Date:6/1/2006 6:15:49 PM
Posts # 156854, 156899,
excellent - thanks for the report KAJ07710 - a buck and a half a phone for 3G is a great target.
R
******Read this 3 part KAJO post below reporting on June 1 annual shareholders meeting! *******
Posted by: KAJO7710
In reply to: None
Date:6/1/2006 3:26:53 PM
Posts # 156796, 156813, 156834, 157094 (combined below)
ASM - KOP - I
Just returned from the ASM of IDCC which was generally upbeat. My report will paraphrase what I can remember from my notes.
The meeting room this year was smaller with only a total of 140 seats. Approximately 120 stockholders were present (minus 8 board members and 10 management team).
While we were waiting for the meeting to begin, there was a screen projecting important points about IDCC.
* 2006 will be the year that IDCC hits its stride with the development of the integrated dual-mode 2G/3G ASIC-HSUPA technology.
* IDCC will derive revenue from every 3G unit sold. A few other comments-not meaningful.
Harry Campagna called the meeting to order at 11:00 a.m. HC introduced 10 from the management team and 8 board members. Janet Pointe was the only one to receive applause when introduced.
At this point, the corporate secretary read the stockholders proposals and reported that management's position prevailed by a majority and actual tallies would be available at the end of the meeting.
Corp buyer was asked to read his proposal. The corporate secretary read the boards response and basically said that declassification is not in the interest of shareholders. 80% of outstanding voting shares must approve any change (in a direct conversation with HC after the meeting, he stated that even if 80% or greater voting shares approved a change, the board is under no obligation to make that change. Regardless of the AISI position on director election, they are not responsible for running IDCC. Corporations do not have time to read every stock perspectus. Therefore, AISI? stepped into the void to provide this service and corporation and others use it as they see fit. Our board is responsible for making certain that shareholder value is enhanced not AISI?).
HC then gave a few introductory comments. It is tough to operate a high tech company where new technologies are coming on line everyday. IDCC is doing a great job of staying ahead of that curve. We are making very good progress in improving our firms business strategy and strategic planning.
MORE COMING!!
Posted by: KAJO7710
In reply to: None
Date:6/1/2006 3:54:17 PM
Post #of 156899
ASM - KOP II
Presentation by Uncle Billy (left below). (CEO William "Bill" Merritt - WL ed)
UB reviewed the information that he talked about in his 1st quarter conference call. The biggest driver for IDCC's revenue will be 3G, made up of patent technology licenses or some combination thereof (ASIC). Our mantra is to collect on every 3G unit. In the business area, we have separated the engineering and product programs to get more focus. Because of the continued repeating of our mantra, Wall Street is finally getting the message of where we are and where we want to go.
There are 4 steps to executing that strategy:
* create revelant technology - we were earlier in this space than other contributors and, therefore, have a deeper patent pool. We were the 1st to build a base station.
* embed technology in the standards. IDCC's biggest sale is at this level. We compete against our peers, such as Motorola etc. and our solutions are better than our peers who we competed against to be accepted in those standards. These standards are legally binding and once our patents are accepted in these standards, nobody can build around them.
* product solutions - can be used to compliment licensing or be stand alone products for sale with such partnerships as Phillips/Infinien/General Dynamics.
* major cash flow - we are using this cash flow to keep our 150 engineers inventing new tech and staying ahead of the curve. If you look at the revenue bar, you can see the trend and our recent 200 million buyback shows you the confidence management has in the future value of our stock.
He then showed a slide of the major licensees of IDCC and pointed out that we have 12 companies contributing more than 1 million in revenue to the top line.

He then talked about the resolution of the Nokia and Panasonic issues. He said Panasonic was very important because the issue was whether or not they infringed our patents. Now that we have shown them that they have and they admitted it, they are in the corral and must pay.
He then stated that in the past 9 months we have received 600 million + in licensing revenue with solid and growing profits in 3G. We are still very early in the 3G market and we have 35 to 45% of the WCDMA and CDMA 2000 market in this space. We are one of only a very few companies who have demonstrated HSUPA capability. We expect to have a 2G/3G solution for licensing and sale by the end of 2006. We expect 1 billion phones to ship by 2008. 60% of that market is expected to be 3G by 2010.
IDCC's essential position will drive penetration in that market and IDCC's products will drive higher value in that market of 800 million by 2010. We are assuming average revenue of $1.50 per unit. We are actually getting just north of that right now. That concludes his presentation.
MORE COMING!!
Posted by: KAJO7710
Post #of 156899
ASM - KOP III
Questions and Answers!
Q. What can you tell about our involvement in China?
A. UB - we have been active in China for the last 5 years in the Tech TDD and building relationships which as you know is very important in that country. We expect TSCDMA to be approved this year. We are in a position to go back because we expect the timing will be more fruitful. We expect to be involved in direct patent licensing and expect to collect on whatever Infineon sells in that market.
Q. Can you tell what effect the Qualcom/Nokia litigation will have on IDCC?
A. UB - we don't think there will be a direct impact. It does put the issue of patent dispute more into the public arena. A possible prolonged dispute may help us but it is too early to tell. However, it is fun to watch others go toe to toe with Nokia instead of IDCC. (HC said he wouldn't have been as diplomatic)
HC - stated that he heard that the president of Q has said that Nokia has more to lose in this dispute than Q. Q has 2.8 billion in sales at risk - Nokia has 12.8 billion at risk. (corrected WL ed)
Q. When can we expect revenue recognition from Infinien/Phillips?
A. Mark Lemmo - we see design wins coming in for them and would expect some revenues maybe by the tail end of this year or the beginning of next year.
Q. What can you tell us about the Motorola purchase of TTPCom and its impact on IDCC? Also, what can you tell us about SAMSUNG?
A. UB - we are scratching our head on this one because we are not sure but because PPCOM is in competition with IDCC, taking them out of the market would help us.
Mark Lemmo - we are still evaluating.
UB - same answer. Whether the price of the protocol stack may go up or down is pure speculation as a result of the Motorola purchase.
UB - on SAMSUNG. If they want to compete against Motorola, IDCC could help them quicker and better than they could do it inhouse.
At this time HC introduced Mr. SELIGSOHN, , founder of IDCC.
Q. While I understand the stock option plan, I would prefer more be given to key employees than to the Board and top management. What can you tell us about this?
A. HC - going forward we are moving away from giving options. In the past, 60% went to regular employees. When the company had no cash, we had to use options just to keep people working. In our long term compensation plan, we have used less options than other high tech companies. On Long Island, there was a new start up company that was stealing our engineers with a promise of stock options that would make them rich when the IPO went public.
We had to counter that. fortunately that company went under.
Human Resources- Gary - We stopped using stock options for executives 5 years ago and 3 years ago for employees.
HC- we use an out side advisor and the compensation committee met 8 times in the past year and and not infrequently by teephone conference call.
Q. Late shareholder asked a repeat question. He made the statement that he just spoke to his broker (who he did not name)
who stated that institutions are becoming more interested in IDCC because it is executing.
Q. Do we have any problem with back dating options and do we plan an audit?
A. Larry Sher,attny- No audit needed because options were priced on the day they were awarded.
Q. We talk about 1% for 2G. Can you give us a feel for 3G?
A. UB- Right now we average just north of $1.50 with a fair participation by the market. In 2G, we were getting between 1 to 2% per phone. This is difficult to predict because our revenue is based on the percentage of the cost of the phone. In our projection, we are using an assumption of 1% on an estimated
$200 per phone in 2010. For 3G, we are trying to push it a little higher then the $1.50 per phone.
Q. Can you update us on the buyback? When will EPS reflect the buyback? Why does it take IDCC so long to report earnings?
A. RF- we will provide a buyback update with the next quarterly earnings report. Difficult to judge because $7 million in option money impacts future EPS. Reporting earnings converged around 8k/10q? we are working on getting them separted and expect our timing to improve.
That concludes reporting on the formal meeting. I do have some additional comments about conversations with Harry C. & Brian Kiernan after the meeting. I 'll try to get to them as soon as I can but not sure when.
Posted by: KAJO7710
In reply to: None
Date:6/3/2006 4:34:20 PM
Post # 157093
ASM - KOP IV AND FINAL
Conversations with Brian Kiernan and Harry Campagna after the meeting ! (Kiernan)
BK - In a conversation about 802 products and whether they were a part of the 1.2 billion chart, he stated that there are 2 products. One of the products merges into the IP for the terminal and will help drive licensing. The 802.11 product is a stand alone and will provide separate revenue but is a very small percentage at this point in time of the chart (200 million ?). The real monster of the market is the 3G cell phone market which is probably one of the largest, if not the largest, out there
.
HG - I asked would we have trouble collecting on IP in China? He replied, that is a difficult question. There was recently a headline about a 6 billion sale in China by a US manufacturer. I have a very large rolladex and got busy and found out that this company had to provide 6 times as much machinery as warrented in the deal to get the business so essentially it became a lost leader for them - not a profit.
Poison Pill - the poison pill was established sometime in 1999 in the 250 dollar range as a result of quite a few things happening back at that time. It is under review right now and the board will take a look at it in light of our current strengths and our future potential in the market. I asked the same question that I asked of him last year - whether it would be easy for a potential suitor to get around it. He again stated that I can show the research that I have on my desk and it will not be a picnic for anybody to try and do so and very likely not to succeed.
On a Buyout - we would certainly evaluate a buyout if it was one for fair value. After all, I am the fifth largest stockholder in this company counting all institutions, mutual funds etc. It would be to my great advantage to entertain such a buyout but, I repeat, no one will ever succeed in a buyout if it is not one of fair value for all shareholders. Ain't gonna happen!!
I was interested in finding out more about the man who took his dry cleaning dispute to the Supreme Court of the United States. This is what he told me. He had a patent on a unique color that was providing a very nice living to him for 30 years. This color was good for years and would not fade. One or more thieves (a la Nokia) came in with knockoffs that were of inferior quality that lasted 6 months and undercut him in price. He said, it wasn't right and I was not going to accept anything but full restitution. And, as you know, he went to the Supreme Court and won his suit.
It was no different when ERICY took advantage of IDCC over a decade ago. Our board did not want to fight saying that we were too small to take them on. Those people had our shareholders money and it belongs to us! We are not running a charitable institution here. HC also said, it is the right thing to do (at last years ASM you may recall that HC told me that ERICY hated his guts for his aggressive posture). He said that we would not be standing here today if we did not take that course of action!
My Measure of The Man -
I know there are many that are critical of HC, for whatever reason. But, I believe that he deserves the lion's share of credit for providing the foundation for where we are today. He provided his personal money to keep a bankrupt IDCC afloat. His leadership in leading the fights against Motorola (although flawed), ERICY, and Nokia have provided the cash and respect for our IPR which is now the success upon which you and I are building our dreams. Yes, this company is personal to HC. If I did what he did, I think it would be personal to me too. That aside, my wife and I can sleep well at night knowing that there is a moat around the IDCC castle with a ferocious junkyard bulldog on the drawbridge. With UB executing, you can count on HC covering his back. I believe this team will get us to the Princeton 50 and the Houston 100 very soon.
I am appreciative of all your kind remarks about my reporting but, believe me, your contributions are of more substantive value and have kept me long and strong in this stock. In the end, it is about teamwork. Each member provides the expertise that is his/her strength. I was a walk-on on Joe Paterno's team in 1960 (unsuccessfully I might add) and one of the things that he always preached was "give me a team of lesser talented players who play to the optimum as a team and I will beat a team that has superior talent that does not play well as a team". I think we have the kind of team that plays very well together.
Signing off for now!
Posted by: washmaster
In reply to: sinnet14 who wrote msg# 156781
Date:6/1/2006 2:52:30 PM
Post # 156785
Sinnet14: (RE: $1.5 billion WL ed) That was what was indicated on the slide (at today's ASM meeting - WL ed) - licensing revenue since inception.
Good Positive (ASM) meeting. Someone asked Harry afterwards about how many 3G essential patents IDCC had - that question went pretty much unanswered. After more prodding, Harry pulled out his money clip and smiled!
IDCC management seemed to reflect a very positive focused agenda. I think everyone seems to have tremendous confidence in BM. Harry had his 'happy tie' on and that pretty much was the way the meeting went.
Trey
Posted by: olddog967
In reply to: olddog967 who wrote msg# 156771
Date:6/1/2006 2:11:48 PM
Post # 156774
I wonder if this is what Harry (Campagna at today's ASM meeing - WL ed) was referring to in regard to Motorola and TTPcom. That take over is at real nice premium.
Motorola to buy U.K.'s TTPCom for $192 million
Handset-making giant seeks to secure AJAR operating system
Last Update: 5:40 AM ET Jun 1, 2006
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Motorola Inc. said Thursday it has agreed to buy TTP Communications, a U.K.-based mobile application and semiconductor developer, for 103 million pounds ($192 million) in cash.
Under the terms of the deal, a wholly owned subsidiary of Motorola (MOT :
21.34, +0.25, +1.2% ) will acquire TTPCom for 0.45 pounds a share. The British company's directors said they intend to unanimously recommend the offer to shareholders.
The 45 pence-per-share offer represents a premium of around 246% to the closing price of 13 pence per TTP share on Wednesday.
TTPCom (UK:TTC: news, chart, profile) shares more than tripled to 0.43 pounds a share in London morning trading. Also see London Markets.
"It's a fairly nice premium. The discussions had been held on and off for a while and it was important to achieve a reasonable price because a lot of the top engineers receive equities. Getting a fair price was crucial to retaining that talent," said Dan Ridsdale, an analyst with Bridgewell Securities.
"A counterbid is unlikely at this level," he added.
Ridsdale said Motorola was mainly interested in TTPCom's AJAR mobile-operating system, which it was going to license. AJAR is being used in low- to-high-end phones and supports second-generation to third-generation handsets.
"For the amount of royalties they (Motorola) were going to pay, they probably figured they might as well buy the company," said Ridsdale.
He added that TTPCom also has some interesting silicon designs that may give Motorola more flexibility when selecting its chip manufacturer.
TTPCom, based in Cambridge, U.K., is focused on the three core areas of mobile-phone technology -- applications, protocols and silicon. Founded in 1988, it has approximately 575 employees. Motorola said TTPCom will remain headquartered in Cambridge under the direction of Rob Shaddock, who is chief technology officer of Motorola's mobile-devices group. See more technology coverage.
Alongside confirmation of mobile-phone giant Motorola's firm offer, TTP said it swung to a pre-tax loss from continuing operations of 27 million pounds for the year ended 31 March. The company posted a profit of 4 million pounds the year before. Sales from continuing operations fell to 37.2 million pounds from 58.1 million pounds.
"The disappointing financial performance resulted from a decline in 2G revenues coinciding with a delay in the growth of 3G and a substantial investment program to produce the exciting new product AJAR," the group in a statement.
Aude Lagorce is a reporter for MarketWatch in London.
RE:
"MOT and TTPcom "scratching our heads over this one"- Harry at ASM
**************************end of shareholder meeting reports ***********************************
Posted by: lastchoice
In reply to: None
Date:5/31/2006 8:49:55 AM
Post # 156560
does anybody remember framework? (does anybody remember laughter?) when Ericsson and Sony-Ericsson signed, there was talk of a framework, (and a company of intergrity). i always operated under the assumption that s/e would not license 3g until nok paid for 2g. that was my framework.
idcc has put nok to bed on 2g...
samsung and s/e would sure blow the 50% number through the roof!
Billion--with a 'B'
Posted by: Danny Detail
In reply to: dmiller who wrote msg# 156484
Date:5/30/2006 5:15:40 PM
Post # 156494
dmiller .. Funny, I was thinking that this bad market might be just what the doctor ordered for IDCC. When the market gets bad, institutions have to mine extra hard to dig up stocks that have upside coupled with low downside even in bad markets. If they find them they improve their short run performance relative to their competitors and add a "gem" to their portfolios that could significantly outperform when the market turns around. We've all wondered why IDCC doesn't appear to be on the WS radar screen given the recent positive events. It would be ironic if it took a bad market to accomplish it.
Regards,
Danny
Posted by: lastchoice
In reply to: None
Date:5/30/2006 8:50:43 AM
Post # 156393
InterDigital Issues Revenue Guidance for Second Quarter 2006; Solid Recurring Royalties
and Recognition of Nokia Revenue Benefit Quarter
KING OF PRUSSIA, Pa.--(Business Wire)--May 30, 2006--
InterDigital Communications Corporation (Nasdaq:IDCC) today announced that it expects total second quarter 2006 revenue to
be in the range of approximately $291 million to $293 million. Expected revenues for second quarter 2006 include the following
approximate amounts:
-- $228 million associated with the resolution of a dispute with Nokia related to a prior patent license agreement,
-- $50 million to $51 million of recurring patent license royalty revenue from its base of existing licensees,
-- $12 million of patent license royalty revenue related to resolution of a licensing matter with Panasonic, and
-- $1 million to $2 million of revenue related to technology solution agreements.
Additionally, InterDigital expects to recognize the balance of the revenue related to Nokia's $253 million
payment this year, recording $12.5 million per quarter in each of third and fourth quarter 2006. Panasonic is obligated to provide InterDigital a royalty report for first quarter 2006 sales. As InterDigital has not yet received the report, the second quarter 2006 forecast does not include per unit royalties from Panasonic.
Richard Fagan, InterDigital's Chief Financial Officer, noted, "We continue to benefit from solid contributions from our existing base of patent licensees and we remain optimistic about our prospects for growth as we continue to capitalize on opportunities in the growing 3G market. While the recognition of a large portion of the payment from Nokia in the second quarter will create an unusual quarter, the payment provides further validation as to our ability to generate value from our intellectual contributions to the wireless industry."
About InterDigital
InterDigital Communications Corporation designs, develops and provides advanced wireless technologies and products that drive voice and data communications. InterDigital is a leading contributor to the global wireless standards and holds a strong portfolio of patented technologies which it licenses to manufacturers of 2G, 2.5G, 3G and 802 products worldwide. Additionally, the company offers baseband product solutions and protocol software for 3G multimode terminals and converged devices, delivering time-to-market, performance and cost benefits. The company's financial strength and solid revenue base contribute to the continued investment in innovation and development that will shape the next generation of wireless technology. For more
Posted by: Data_Rox
In reply to: JimLur who wrote msg# 155991
Date:5/24/2006 9:32:02 AM
Post # 155996
thanks Jim
InterDigital (IDCC-$25.33-Strong Buy)
Market Cap: $1.4 billion
Price target: $35.00
Investment Thesis. InterDigital, in our view, represents an excellent opportunity for investors who want to play the intellectual property space. With the Nokia overhang removed, the company is, we believe, well positioned to add new licensees for its 3G patents and will see an additional boost from new customers for its technology solutions offerings. InterDigital holds key patents for 2G/2.5G/3G technologies, has a number of key licensees that have agreed to pay royalties, has a healthy balance sheet ($3.50/share of cash at the end of the March quarter that was enhanced by Nokia's payment of about $240 million, or an incremental $4 of cash per share), has announced a shareholder-friendly buyback in the amount of $200 million, and has an executive team that has executed very well over the past year. We look for the company to come to a settlement with Samsung in the near future, which we estimate to be about $115 million (about $2 of cash per share), and believe InterDigital will be successful in signing up new 3G licensees over the next few quarters.
The company has not yet provided revenue guidance for 2Q:06. It will do so after it receives and reviews applicable royalty reports andfinalizes the accounting associated with the $253-million payment from Nokia and anticipated revenue from work associated withtechnology solution agreements. Our 2Q:06 revenue estimate is $51.9 million (up 35% from the year-ago period) and our EPS estimate is $0.22. For the full-year 2006, our revenue estimate is $212.7 million and our fully diluted EPS estimate is $3.78, which includes the income from the Nokia settlement in the fourth quarter. Excluding the Nokia payment, our full-year, fully diluted 2006 EPS estimate would be $0.94. For 2007, our revenue estimate is $215.6 million and our EPS estimate is $0.93.
Valuation. Using a share price net of cash, IDCC is currently trading at 23.3x normalized estimated 2006 EPS. Our year-end $35 price target is based on our DCF model, which assumes a 3.5% terminal growth rate and a 10% discount rate. In our DCF model we do not assume any new 3G licensees until 2007, and assume that IDCC will capture 35% of the remaining 3G market opportunity from 2007 to 2010 at $1 per handset. Nokia and Samsung are included in our DCF at $253 million and $115 million, respectively. Our DCF model does not include any incremental revenues from the company's technology partners, Infineon (IFX-$11.21-Not Rated) and Philips (PHG-$31.41-Not Rated), nor does it assume any revenues from Matsushita (MC-$21.77-Not Rated) (Panasonic).
Posted by: mschere
In reply to: None
Date:5/23/2006 11:09:12 AM
Post # 155926
Qualcomm Named Best Play For WCDMA Growth
Maya Roney, 05.23.06, 10:45 AM ET
Qualcomm may be the best play in a decelerating wireless infrastructure market in which WCDMA is the only growth area, according to a recent Merrill Lynch report.
"As traditional vendors like Ericsson and new vendors like Lucent battle for market share in equipment, we view Qualcomm as providing broader-based exposure to the growth trends," wrote analyst Tal Liani, maintaining a "buy" rating and $60 price target on Qualcomm.
According to data from Dell (nasdaq: DELL - news - people )’Oro Group, wireless equipment companies saw broad-based deceleration the first quarter of 2006, with sales down 15% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-over-year to $9 billion. Pricing also remained weak, with voice channel average selling prices down 3% quarter-on-quarter and 19% year-over-year.
"We flag these results as a warning sign for vendors like Lucent, Nortel and partly Tellabs who derive [more than] 35% of sales and 80% of profits from the wireless market," Liani said.
However, spending on WCDMA (wideband code division multiple access, a third-generation cellular network) gear was up 7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2006, according Dell’Oro.
Liani believes the next generation of 3G networks, whether WCDMA or CDMA 1x, will all use Qualcomm's technology, which multiplies Qualcomm's addressable market for royalties and chip sales.
If Qualcomm is able to charge its maximum 4.3% royalty rate, the analyst derives an earnings-per-share estimate of $2.39 for fiscal 2008.
"We note that growth investors will continue to invest in the company on a mid-cycle basis, as earnings-per-share growth is expected to be substantial over the next few years," Liani added.
mschere
Posted by: rmarchma
In reply to: None
Date:5/22/2006 7:31:42 AM
Post # 155838 AND # 155878
IDCC quarterly revenues for latest five quarters as follows:
2005 First Quarter:
Total Quarterly Revenues = $35.5m
General Dynamics $4.7m
Recurring Royalty = $30.8m
NEC (32%) $11.4m ($3.3m fixed 2G per quarter and $8.1m 3G)
Sharp (27%) $9.6m
Sony Ericy (12%) $4.3m
Ericy fixed recurring $1.5m per quarter
Sanyo fixed PDC/CDMA2000 $1.1m per quarter
Others Recurring Royalty $2.9m
Total 2005 first quarter = $35.5m
2005 Second Quarter:
Total Quarterly Revenues = $38.6m
General Dynamics $5.5m
Recurring Royalty = $33.1m
NEC (36%) $13.9m ($3.3m fixed 2G per quarter and $10.6m 3G)
Sharp (20%) $7.7m
Sony Ericy (estimated) $3.1m (10% of total revenues for first six months less first quarter)
Ericy fixed recurring $1.5m per quarter
Sanyo fixed PDC/CDMA2000 $1.1m per quarter
Late royalty report from 1st qtr $1.1m
Others Recurring Royalty $4.7m
Total 2005 second quarter = $38.6m
2005 Third Quarter:
Total Quarterly Revenues = $48.5m
Past years true-up on new licensees $10.2m (Kyocera = $10m for one prior year)
Product and Technology $4.5m (Gen’l Dynamics $3.5m; Phillips $1m)
Recurring Royalty = $33.8m
NEC (24%) $11.6m ($3.3m fixed 2G per quarter and $8.3m 3G)
Sharp (19%) $9.2m
Sony Ericy $4.2m
Kyocera CDMA2000 fixed recurring $2.5m
Ericy fixed recurring $1.5m per quarter
Sanyo fixed PDC/CDMA2000 $1.1m per quarter
Others Recurring Royalty $3.7m
Total 2005 third quarter = $48.5m
2005 Fourth Quarter:
Total Quarterly Revenues = $40.5m
Product and Technology $4.3m (Gen’l Dynamics $2.5m; Phillips $1.8m)
Recurring Royalty = $36.2m
NEC (28%) $11.3m ($3.3m fixed 2G per quarter and $8.0m 3G)
Sharp (25%) $10.1m
Sony Ericy (10%) $4.0m
Kyocera CDMA2000 fixed recurring $2.5m
Ericy fixed recurring $1.5m per quarter
Sanyo fixed PDC/CDMA2000 $1.1m per quarter
Others Recurring Royalty $5.7m
Total 2005 fourth quarter = $40.5m
2006 First Quarter:
Total Quarterly Revenues = $51.6m
Product and technology fees $2.0m (primarily Phillips estimated at $1.5m)
Recurring Royalty = $49.6m
NEC (22%) $11.3m ($2.2m fixed 2G ended in Feb ‘06 and $9.1m ongoing 3G)
LG fixed recurring (22%) $11.3m (for 2.4 months in first quarter, full quarter = $14.3m per quarter)
Sharp (18%) $9.3m
Sony Ericy $3.9m (estimated based on 2005 average)
Ericy fixed recurring $1.5m per quarter
Kyocera fixed CDMA2000 recurring $2.5m per quarter
Sanyo fixed PDC/CDMA2000 $1.1m per quarter
Lucent CDMA2000 fixed $.7m per quarter (only includes licensed Tantivy patents)
Others Recurring Royalty $8.0m (includes HTC, RIM, Sierra, Sanyo for GSM/WCDMA, Toshiba, Option, Danger, Quanta, Arima, etc)
Total 2006 first quarter = $51.6m
 |
IDCC did very well in the first quarter with the LG license to more than compensate for the declining quarterly revenues from both the NEC 2G royalties and General Dynamics. The LG license generated $11.3m in its first partial quarter. The ongoing LG fixed royalty will be $14.3m per quarter.
The $3.3m fixed quarterly 2G royalty from NEC ended in February, but the NEC 3G royalty revenues continue. The majority of the General Dynamics revenues were earned in 2005. The last $300,000 of product deliverables for General Dynamics was completed in the first quarter. The only thing that continues with General Dynamics is a $2m maintenance contract for 3 years, or $167,000 per quarter. |
Notice the significant increase in “other” licensee revenues provided by a hodgepodge of different licensees, especially over the latest two quarters. This is especially meaningful since IDCC lost almost another $1m per quarter from other 2G licensees per the third quarter 10Q as follows: “In addition, by December 31, 2005, we will have completed amortization of deferred revenue from other 2G agreements, which collectively contributed $2.5m or 2% of our revenues in the first nine months of 2005.” I think that Arima Communications, who was signed at the end of the third quarter of 2005, might be providing a good bit of this latest quarterly increase in "other" licensee revenues.

Arima |
Arima is Taiwan’s second largest handset manufacturer behind BenQ/Siemens. Arima shipped 4.26m handsets in the first quarter of 2006, and expects to ship 4.5m handsets in the second quarter. Arima expanded a plant in China that now has the capacity to produce 50m handsets per year. Arima is both an OEM manufacturer, and an ODM manufacturer for others. Sony Ericy is one of its largest ODM clients, but Arima also manufactures handsets for NEC and Toshiba. I’m not sure who pays royalty to IDCC when a handset is jointly produced by an ODM and OEM, who are both licensed with IDCC. |
I will try to provide some additional thoughts on IDCC’s “other” licensees a little later.
The following carrythrough post by rmarchma is from his subsequent post # 155878, May 22, 2006.
I think that HTC is a significant part of other licensee revenues. HTC licensed with IDCC in December of 2003. They have grown by leaps and bounds since licensing, as an IDCC license appears to bring good fortunes upon its licensees LOL. During HTC’s fourth quarter, which would be included in IDCC's subsequent first quarter revenues, total HTC quarterly revenues were equivalent to $862m US dollars. HTC makes smartphones and PDA phones, which are both royalty-bearing, and regular PDAs which are not royalty-bearing to IDCC.
When HTC first licensed with IDCC, less than half its revenues came from phone-enabled devices. Now I would guess that a major percentage of its revenues involve phone-enabled devices, but I don’t know how much. I believe that a recent prepaid advance of $15m received in the first quarter came from HTC. If the prepaid is for 1 year, then the indicated quarterly revenues are $3.75m. If the prepayment is for 2 years, then the indicated prepayment is almost $2m per quarter. An excerpt from a previous post today on this issue as follows: ..."in addition, the company has received a $15m royalty prepayment in the first quarter of 2006 from an existing Taiwanese-based licensee which had exhausted its previous prepayment".
Taiwan's HTC initially licensed with IDCC in December 2003, so any previous prepayment could easily be exhausted by the end of 2005. However, IDCC received a second prepayment of about the same amount based upon the following statement in the first quarter 10Q:
..."and approximately $31m which relates to new prepayments from two other existing licensees." (other than LG)
Bill Gates with HTC Universal |

|
I speculate that this second $15m to $16m prepayment received in the first quarter is from either RIMM or Arima Communications. There was no indication on the second prepayment that it was also due to exhausting a previous prepayment, but only that it was from an existing licensee.
As to your question about the length of time that these prepayments cover, we really don't know for sure. I would guess between 1 to 2 years. However, I know that Sharp made a prepaid advance one time that was estimated to last for only 10 months at the time of the advance. We do know that Sony Ericy has made two prepaid advances estimated to last 2 years for each of the prepayments.

Kyocera KX1 for Verizon |
I can't recall any prepayment to IDCC that was estimated to last longer than two years. BTW Toshiba made a $10m prepaid advance when they renewed their IDCC license in the third quarter of 2004 to include 3G. We have no idea how long that particular prepayment is expected to last either. If Toshiba’s indicated $10m prepayment is for an estimated 2 years, then that would be $1.25m per quarter for CDMA2000. This seems reasonable being that Kyocera’s fixed CDMA2000 royalty is $2.5m per quarter to IDCC, and Kyocera probably sales twice as many CDMA2000 handsets than Toshiba. |
RIMM is another licensee that could be providing a significant part of the other licensee quarterly revenues. RIMM’s fourth quarter revenues amounted to $560m of which 70% or $392m pertains to handheld devices. RIMM sold 1.1m of these Blackberry devices in the fourth quarter, for an indicated average retail selling price of $350 per device. A 1% royalty would amount to almost $4 per unit, but I would think that there might be some maximum royalty cap per unit on these expensive devices.
Sanyo has a fixed royalty on CDMA2000 handsets of $1.1m per quarter, but a per unit royalty on GSM and WCDMA handsets. When Sanyo updated its license in 2004, $5m of the advance was allocated as a prepayment credit against the GSM and WCDMA future handset sales. I don’t know how large Sanyo’s market share is for these handsets, but they are selling dual-mode 2G/3G handsets to Vodaphone Live and Orange in Europe.
Sierra Wireless and Option are recent licensees, who are also doing well and growing. However, I don’t think they provide significant revenues to IDCC yet. Sierra’s fourth quarter revenues were $37m for wireless cards, and Option’s first quarter revenues were $58.3m Euros. Option does expect its second quarter revenues to increase to $82m Euros, primarily due to modules and data cards incorporating HSDPA technology.
Option 3G HSDPA Data Card |
 |
Danger is another recent licensee, who makes the popular Hiptop devices. I think that they are a private company, and thus no public info is available for them. I don’t think that they would generate significant revenues to IDCC though.
Quanta Computer licensed with IDCC late in the third quarter of 2005, along with Arima. Quanta is the world’s largest notebook computer maker, who has fairly recently entered into PDA phones. They had an order with Europe’s O2 for these devices, and there is speculation that they might receive some rather large orders from HP and Acer for PDA phones in 2006.
If I had to just make a guess and pull numbers out of the air, I would estimate the following breakout for “other” licensee revenues for the first quarter as follows:
HTC = $2.0m
Arima = $1.8m
RIMM = $1.5m
Toshiba =$1.2m
Sanyo per unit royalties = $.5m
All others = $1.0
Total Other = $8.0m
 |
Posted by: my3sons87
In reply to: None
Date:5/22/2006 2:27:28 PM
Post # 155871
Correction with the present 200 million authorized for repurchase of shares they could buy as many as 8 million shares in the $25/share range. Add that to the previous 5 million purchased and they could have repurchased as much as 13 million shares. Is this bullish or what?
|
Posted by: my3sons87
In reply to: None
Date:5/22/2006 2:23:58 PM
Post # 155868
The boys will have bought back 7 million shares since 2003 including the 0present 2 million authorized. See press release following.
InterDigital Completes Two Million Share Repurchase; Five Million Shares Repurchased within a Two Year Period
KING OF PRUSSIA, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 21, 2005--InterDigital Communications Corporation (Nasdaq:IDCC), a leading architect, designer and provider of wireless technology and product platforms, today announced that it has completed the repurchase of two million shares of Common Stock. In October 2004, InterDigital's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of one million shares and, in March 2005, expanded the authorization to a total of two million shares.
Since the beginning of 2003, InterDigital has repurchased 5 million shares, investing approximately $86 million. "Our pattern of share repurchases in recent years reflects our strong commitment to invest in the value of the Company for the benefit of our shareholders and our confidence in the value we are creating for the future," said Harry G. Campagna, Chairman of the Board of
D

|
Posted by: ellismd
In reply to: None
Date:5/19/2006 2:39:03 PM
Post # 155773
I think this is an all time high for IDCC.
Institution 133 491.38 37.4 20,354,298
(WL ed: I believe this means that total institutions holding shares of IDCC: 133
Shares now held by institutions: 20,354,298
Percentage of total shares now held by institutions: 37.4%)
|

|
Posted by: Data_Rox
In reply to: None
Date:5/17/2006 11:41:00 AM
Post # 155608
ot: fwiw....I might be a little early but I've got some lines in the water here....IMO the company won't go into the ASM on a long downturn.
best of luck to all
R
Posted by: jtaylor
In reply to: nicmar who wrote msg# 155557
Date: 5/17/2006 8:57:00 AM
Post # 155579

A Samsung 3G PLA, by itself, could give IDC over $114 million of earnings for the next 5 years. This would be the case if the Samsung 3G deal is comparable to the LG 3G license, because Samsung’s market share is about twice that of LG and the revenue from the LG deal is $57 million per year.
IMO, the Samsung 3G license should have a greater effect on share price than that of the LG 3G license because the LG 3G license merely caused the EPS to become more reasonable: 2005 earnings were $.20/share at a end year share price of about $19 or an EPS of about 95. 2006 earnings are estimated to be about $1.19/share and current EPS is 21.5.
Thus, the impact of a Samsung 3G license (if comparable to the LG 3G licenses) could be increased earnings of $114 or about $2/share. To keep the EPS at around 21.5 (today’s number) would require a price increase of 43, or a share price of 69. If the price only increased to 40, this would give an EPS of 12.5. This would be way too low an EPS for a company with IDS’s potential.
Posted by: loophole73
In reply to: lastchoice who wrote msg# 155566
Date: 5/17/2006 7:46:57 AM
Post # 155568
Last
Who can forget guidance? The shareholders and the street have been begging for it for years. When and if IDCC can provide reasonable and accurate guidance, the share price will take off until it surpasses the level attainable as a result of the multiples afforded the company on a forward looking basis. The share price will drift back from that level until additional events are announced and hopefully accompanied with guidance which will cause further spikes to occur until a new level is surpassed. Publicly announced guidance is the most important feature that IDCC can deliver in order to enhance shareholder value. Back room prsentations will not accomplish near the results that solid guidance PR's and 8k's full of financial goodies will produce.
MO
Posted by: lastchoice
In reply to: linedrivehitter who wrote msg# 155559
Date: 5/17/2006 7:31:22 AM
Post # 155566
good news is not a series of discrete events, imo. they are a gathering storm, building critical mass. even a 2g samsung award will build on prior successes. any top-six 3g will permanently blow through 30. especially, once the mass brings in more WS coverage--maybe a top-six wall street firm? don't forget guidance--it really shouldn't be news, but i think it will slap a few observers in the face--there's still more value locked into the already public news.
Posted by: nicmar
In reply to: linedrivehitter who wrote msg# 155476
Date:5/16/2006 11:44:57 AM
Post # 155479
linedrive. Know exactly what you mean, but I don't think the street yet has confidence that we're going to get most of the majors signed without prolonged suits. If we get a good one later on this year, then I think they will feel idcc will have the ability to sign the rest.
Maybe we'll slide back a few dollars all the time, but I expect the 30's with one and the 40's or more with the next 3g. Merritt says we'll get them. However. .. I don't think a 2g agreement only with samsung will do much at all. Course, I could be wrong on all my thinking. So far, I have been. .. mo. .. .. nic
Posted by: mschere
In reply to: Corp_Buyer who wrote msg# 155509
Date: 5/16/2006 1:51:38 PM
Post # 155512
Thank you for a well thought out Analysis..IMO:Nokia's infringement of IDCC's IP is current, while Nokia's infringement of Q's IP is almost 11 Month's out..IDCC is seeking 1% vs. Q's 4 1/2% for essentially the same Franchise.A Nokia/IDCC 3G license provides Nokia with a valuable TDD bargaining chip for a future settlement with Q..
Posted by: Corp_Buyer
In reply to: Corp_Buyer who wrote msg# 155463
Date:5/16/2006 1:39:03 PM
Post # 155526

In the mind of Nok ...
We can now infer that Nok and IDCC are in serious 3G negotiations:
* Already mutually agreed to some issues (terminate Nok's 3G license)
* Nok has not immediately filed to reactivate their DE action against IDCC's 3G patents (of course, to do so would spoil any 3G negotiations)
* IDCC has not immediately filed a 3G infringement action against Nok (of course, to do so would spoil any 3G negotiations)
Also, the fundamentals favor a 3G settlement, i.e. a negotiated license, between Nok and IDCC:
* The recent Supreme Court decision (although in favor of eBay on the vacation part of the decision) firmly reinforced the IPR rights of non-manufacturers to obtain injunctions
* New top management at Nok is now calling the shots
* A $1/4 billion judgment (IDCC arb. award confirmation) is a wake up call, no matter how you look at it
* The Nok vs. Qcom dispute is a huge and very threatening issue for Nok
* And, most importantly, NOK is indeed infringing IDCC's 3G patents
Regarding, the last point above, which is a compelling point to me, I read Nok's DE 3G complaint essentially as an admission of infringement, if read logically:
* In particular, e.g. Count III and Count V reveal Nok's purported workaround in the form of a single step, rather than a series of steps, for the second power ramp up to the required power level.
* Logically, in the case where only one step is needed in the second ramp, then Nok has admitted infringement of the basic patented technology, IMO
* In other words, all Nok has really accomplished in their purported work around by using a single power step, rather than a series of steps (in the second ramp up), is to add a feature to IDCC's basic technology, whereby extra unneeded steps may be bypassed.
* Also, I note that Nok did not even purport workarounds for all of IDCC's key 3G patents. Rather, Nok is relying on winning its invalidity arguments against many of IDCC's key 3G patents.
Accordingly, if Nok is indeed infringing IDCC's 3G patents, as seems to be the case, then Nok's UK action and its DE action against IDCC's 3G actions is truly just what we thought it was, i.e. negotiating leverage.
And, IDCC's 3G IPR seems to have been greatly validated by:
* Nec
* LG
* Sam's desire and request for a 3G license
* Implication that Matsushita is infringing (recent 10k)
Therefore, given all of the above, it seems that the fundamentals are in place for a negotiated 3G license between Nok and IDCC (as well as between Nok and Qcom). At least, it seems Nok will either strive very hard to relicense with both Qcom and IDCC, rather than go to the legal mat with both firms. And going to the mat with both firms after having poisoned the licensing negotiations, especially with the recent Supreme Court decision confirming that pure licensors may indeed obtain injunctions, must be an unacceptable path for Nok.
MO,
Corp_Buyer
Posted by: MMC89
In reply to: None
Date:5/16/2006 2:31:06 PM
Post # 155523
Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: InterDigital Communications, Nokia Corp., Kyocera Wireless and iPass, Inc.
6:00 AM EDT May 15, 2006
Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day, the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: InterDigital Communications (Nasdaq:IDCC), Nokia Corp. (NYSE:NOK), Kyocera Wireless Corp. (NYSE:KYO) and iPass, Inc. (Nasdaq:IPAS).
See the latest posts to the Analyst Blog by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=2673
Here are highlights from Friday's Analyst Blog:
InterDigital Upgraded
InterDigital Communications (Nasdaq:IDCC), a leading wireless technology and licensing company, announced highly impressive first quarter earnings results (ended March) with a record high quarterly revenue. This was primarily driven by increased recurring royalties, both from existing licenses as well as from the new agreements signed by the company in the last nine months. On April 27, the company settled its 2G royalty litigation with Nokia Corp. (NYSE:NOK), per which Nokia will pay $253 million to IDCC during 2006. Recent deals with LG Electronics and other manufacturers provide improved revenue visibility in future. We are upgrading shares to a Buy Rating based on our valuation projections.
To maintain its technology leadership, IDCC spends a significant portion of its annual revenue on research and development activities as it works closely with various manufacturers and international standard-setting bodies in the wireless industry. In 2004, IDCC filed a total of 858 patent applications and royalties received from its use are usually passed through the income statement without product costs (no Cost of Goods Sold), in effect benefiting the bottom-line without margin.
Most of the company's patent-licensing agreements are multi-year deals with recurring revenue based on the number of units sold. Two recently concluded deals, namely a $285 million license pact with LG Electronics and a $50 million agreement with Kyocera Wireless Corp. (NYSE:KYO), have already started expanding the company's top line. As it signs agreements with additional wireless industry players, profit margins will continue to expand, and cash flow should improve dramatically. IDCC already has a solid balance sheet, with $197 million of cash and only $4.5 million of debt as of March 31, 2006. This should give the company the flexibility to defend its intellectual property rights, invest in new technology solutions and continue to buy back shares. Free cash flow during the first quarter was $78.82 million.
Posted by: pianoman1953
In reply to: spencer who wrote msg# 155485
Date:5/16/2006 12:48:29 PM
Post # 155503
Spence, IMO, it's no longer "show me the money". Now, it's "show me the RECURRING money".
Posted by: loophole73
In reply to: Ellix who wrote msg# 155480
Date: 5/16/2006 12:10:51 PM
Post # 155490
Ellix
I posted that IDCC will only receive big multiples when they can demonstrate a sustained pattern of rising recurring revenue. The street is going to make IDCC prove their forward looking claims. This has been obvious for quite some time and griping about it now may make you feel good, but it is not going to help the share price. The option sellers are steadily at work and making money. 3g license agreements announcements will generate a rise in the share price, but IDCC is still under the burden of guiding the street as to the financial impact the announcements will have on the company. Since the signing of LG and the settlement with Nok, this is a very simple investment from here. Future license signings and GUIDANCE will will be the driving force for the return on this investment. New patents are nice and present earnings are good, but the ability to objectively and accurately project revenue 3 to 4 years out are the missing ingredients in the rocket fuel.
MO
loop
Posted by: Ellix
In reply to: loophole73 who wrote msg# 155470
Date:5/16/2006 11:52:49 AM
Post # 155480
Dorsey-Miller is a technical service and doesn't get involved in the fundamentals? Yeah, and so was Ford Research who did not even figure in the LG signings. There, the price dropped 10%!!! And here, there was absolutely no support for the price.
In fact, what is happening is that the shorts determine what news is good or bad. They discount the good news and sell hard on any bad, indifferent, or misleading information. We're getting no respect and the company just seems to give no real sustaining support either.
Posted by: Gamco
In reply to: None
Date:5/16/2006 4:54:08 PM
Post # 155538
[IDCC] Interdigital Communications R ($26.390): IDCC is a member of the Favored Telephone sector. This particular group also still has its sector bullish percent in X's, with decent field position. So when trying to find new long ideas, this is the kind of sector to look to for such plays. IDCC is a 5 for 5'er, so not only is the overall trend positive, but so is the relative strength. In fact, IDCC just gave a relative strength buy signal in March, and a Peer RS buy signal in late January. IDCC has been working up out of a huge base, and recently moved to new rally highs when it broke a double top at 28. With the latest pullback in the market, we have seen IDCC edge back towrad the middle of the ten week trading band, which resides around 25; below that, support lies at 22. The upside target is 45.50, and the weekly momentum recently turned back to positive after having been negative for 8 weeks. In all IDCC sets up as a good play on the long side (we would scale in here and on an further pullback -- 24-26 range). We would then use 21 as the initial hedge point, and the worst case stop point would be a violation of the uptrend line at 19
source: Dorsey-Miller (technical analysis of IDCC stock price projections based on chart - WL ed))
Posted by: gman1962
In reply to: dmiller who wrote msg# 155456
Date: 5/16/2006 10:38:20 AM
Post # 155461
p&f guy (point and figure charts)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=IDCC,P&listNum=
gman
Posted by: chartex
In reply to: None
Date:5/16/2006 10:22:24 AM
Post # 155453
Just called by my broker and was told that Dorsey-Wright has comeout with strong rec. on IDCC with a high end target of $45.50.
Posted by: lotoworld
In reply to: j70k who wrote msg# 155344
Date: 5/15/2006 12:32:28 PM
Post # 155345
j70k: Brilliant thinking,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, if I might say so myself as I had the same discussion last week with my broker,(Minus the Q buying us out). He has clients holding about 370K shares of IDCC as it's been his baby for over a decade. He thought my point,(Your point), was very feasable.
Posted by: j70k
In reply to: None
Date:5/15/2006 12:27:07 PM
Post # 155344
Question: Since there seems to be a consensus view worldwide amongst the oems that qcom does not deserve the same royalty rates for 3g that it was able to demand for 2g, could there be a major shift in strategy that could greatly benefit IDCC? Rather than negotiate first with qcom, why not use IDCC as a company that licenses on fair and reasonable terms and use our rate as a bellweather when pushing qcom to reduce royalty demands.If qcom doesn't like it, then maybe they need to buy out IDCC to offer a portfolio that deserves the rates they want.
Posted by: loophole73
In reply to: loophole73 who wrote msg# 154910
Date:5/10/2006 2:23:10 PM
Post # 154912
Good presentation
Short, concise and full of very positive information. It is hard to ask a question after that type of rendition. I expect a few light bulbs to go off around the street this year. The only thing that could spook them is that it is finally looking too good to be true. IDCC is in extremely good shape.
MO
loop

Posted by: idcc2006
In reply to: None
Date:5/10/2006 11:53:01 AM
Post # 154893
8K is slides of today's presentation. (at Piper Jaffray in NY- WL ed)
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001157523%2D06%2D004971%2Etxt&FilePath...
Posted by: lastchoice
In reply to: None
Date:5/9/2006 10:21:16 AM
Post # 154758
CBS market watch--IDCC
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2935EF31%2D1A59%2D4526%2D884A%2DC2E9DC78E62...
Billion--with a 'B'
Posted by: TFWG
In reply to: ubx who wrote msg# 154705
Date:5/9/2006 8:51:44 AM
Post #of 154740
I will never understand these predictions. What facts are used in the calculations? What is the basis for these targets? Are these targets based on personal goals instead of real financial analysis?
"I wouldn't be surprised at a $45-$50 take out offer emerging once Samsung is done"
Posted by: ellismd
In reply to: ubx who wrote msg# 154705
Date: 5/8/2006 10:31:41 PM
Post # 154708
Not that I am looking for a buyout, but strategically it makes a lot of since for the reasons you mention as well as a few more. Additionally I think it would be a good transition point for a potential suitor. A lot of money in the bank, + small float, and right on the cusp of signing more big 3g
licenses. Once IDCC gets a few more 3G licenses under their belt the price will have to double and could get out of hand for a buyer. There will be a small window of opportunity and than puff it will be gone. That's my story and I am sticking to it! The ASM in June will be one to rememer IMHO.
Posted by: ubx
In reply to: captainslog who wrote msg# 154699
Date:5/8/2006 9:34:23 PM
Post # 154705
Well now that Nokia 2G is settled and we have money in the bank and Samsung is about to settle or receive a ruling, I think IDCC is looking like a juicey takeover target in the eyes of QCOM. Buying IDCC would really bolster their position in the Nokia negotiations (and prevent the possibility of IDCC settling for 0.5-1.0% when QCOM is after 5%)and give them a big portfolio to go after the Chinese with -- TDCDMA. I wouldn't be surprised at a $45-$50 take out offer emerging once Samsung is done. It would be chump change for QCOM and put a floor under their negotiations with the big fish.
Posted by: jtaylor
In reply to: hrbart who wrote msg# 154698
Date: 5/8/2006 10:39:52 PM
Post # 154711
Hrbrt, A PLA with Samsung should be worth twice that of LG because Samsung has twice the market share of LG. So, the PLA with Samsung should be worth 114 million in annual revenues and an estimated 105 million in profits, div by 50 million shares = $2 of increased earnings per share. At a PE ratio of 25, this yields a price increase of 50 for the PLA with Samsung alone. Today’s IDC PE ratio is about 27.
Posted by: biggeneg
In reply to: handovercash who wrote msg# 154694
Date:5/8/2006 7:44:44 PM
Post # 154697
I don,t really think the samsung money is figured in.
I think the price will go at least $2 when we settle with samsung.
MO
Gene
Posted by: captainslog
In reply to: loophole73 who wrote msg# 154508
Date: 5/8/2006 8:13:41 PM
Post # 154699
Loop,
I, too, believe WM to be key to our current and future success.
His key public attribute is shooting straight from the hip and following through with his word.
No empty poetic promises from him like 'engine and transmission', 'filling in the blanks', and so forth.
He's made one statement that I'm aware of that never came true and that is the quarter he predicted having two licensees in the bag. One came through, the other didn't, but shortly after, we initiated our first law suit in many, many years.
Other than that one incident, what he's said has come true.
The future potential value of this company has never really been priced into the stock. While we've enjoyed a stock price based on future earning, it's been heavily hedged with shorting.
If we are to ever enjoy the potential of having 70% to 100% of the handset manufacturers paying royalty before the actual signing of each and every licensee, it'll have to be on the word, the perception, and the ability to have confidence in this management to obtain the goals they've set out.
To my knowledge, no management team has ever stated flatly that they will achieve 100% of the handset manufacturers to pay royalty. This goal gives shareholders, wall street, and IDCC's board itself something to measure and gauge the success of IDCC management. With every successive license signing with us, it also gets us closer to the time when the stock price will reflect a value far beyond a hedged reality.
To date, WM's word has been solid and I believe the inflection point isn't too far in the distance. Today we have about 35% of the market paying IDCC to sell 3G handsets. The inflection point is somewhere after we have 60% of the market, two, maybe three more top six handset manufacturers, or the signing of a NOK 3G agreement.
Posted by: j70k
In reply to: None
Date:5/6/2006 1:54:59 PM
Post # 154509
In assessing the first 4 months of 06, I am very impressed with not only management's ability to get the job done, but also the unpredictabilty of when these major deals were finalized and announced. Timing this stock just became a lot more difficult and with so much out there that could come at any time, a clear message was sent to those that have manipulated this stock in the past. I also like the fact that WM is confident enough to throw out figures like 700 million in revenues that is "not a pipe dream" because it clearly states our potential while the Company continues to buy back its own stock. IF we are to see someone who is interested in adding our portfolio to plug the holes in theirs or feels that they need what we have in order to deal with China, I would expect that this interest would show up fairly soon(sometime between now and next April). This very real possibility also looms over those that feel they can time this stock as they have in the past. Great position to be in for
LONGS. jmho
Posted by: loophole73
In reply to: Danny Detail who wrote msg# 154506
Date:5/6/2006 1:22:46 PM
Post # 154508
DannyD
I agree. Further, even I am at my highest confidence level over my 20+ plus years associated with this stock. I made a post on
Atomic Bob's as follows:
I must admit that I was skeptical concerning the abilities of WM when he first took over the lead pilot's seat on this rocket. I have seen a lot of guys manage to replace their superiors over the years by failing to produce on their assignments. I have been following this company for a long time and the licensing division has been crucial for its survival since its inception. WM was the man in charge of the licensing division during HG's term as the lead pilot. The lack of licensing success placed IDCC in a very bad position at or near the time that the Ericy litigation was heading for trial. Sharp had declined to renew its license and they were extremely crucial for the company's cash flow. IDCC settled with Ericy based on an alleged mandate and I have always believed that the reason was based primarily on saving the Sharp relationship. I believe that the loss of Sharp would have left NEC with a very hard choice as to complying with its obligations. After all, nobody wants to know that he is the only paying customer at Fifi's House of Fun. It could give a guy a complex. At any rate, the lack of production by the licensing division appeared to be holding IDCC down as it began a 3 year war with Nok and Samsung over 2g dollars. We were able to reinstate Sharp and maintain NEC, but the monies received from them was primarily being used to pay legal fees and pay key personnel. Although their success produced more and more revenue, we were unable to produce any significant EPS. When the BOD canned the top 3 executives and replaced them with WM and a new licensing chief, I concluded that young WM managed to move into the lead pilot position without really earning his wings. I figured that he got there because he looked better and communicated faster than his predecessor. After studying him for the past year, my doubts about his abilities have been erased.
I now firmly believe that WM (l) will continue to get better and better as he moves forward. I believe he is more than convinced that his goals can be attained. I also believe that he has the traits necessary to command respect within this industry. He prepares well and presents well. He also leaves me with the impression that you know you had better not cross him or you will find yourself outside of the loop quickly. I believe that the employees under him know that he expects and demands way above average performance. I also believe that he will ask the next question to one presenting an idea which is a trait that our company leaders have lacked over the last 20 years. I am more confident with WM at the helm than any of our past lead pilots. This guy is self driven, has the ego to walk the walk, and will not quit until he has achieved it all.
MO
loop
Posted by: Danny Detail
In reply to: rmarchma who wrote msg# 154390
Date:5/6/2006 12:31:58 PM
Post # 154506
Ronny .. When the most respected CPA on this board selects as his "favorite part" of a CC one which focuses on management's "vision", the clarity of same, the alignment of the company thereto and the confidence that the vision will be realized, it is high praise indeed for the accomplishments of the new management team in a relatively short period of time.
Regards,
Danny
Posted by: spencer
In reply to: None
Date:5/5/2006 4:02:28 PM
Post # 154444
This is the highest close in over 6 years. (we closed at 30.12 on 03/27/00)
Posted by: olddog967
In reply to: badgerkid who wrote msg# 154393
Date:5/5/2006 2:34:40 PM
Post # 154413
badgerkid: The buyback time restriction that you mention is not an SEC limitation, but apparently is often a company imposed rule.
To address potential insider trading, many companies inform their brokers that they may be required to suspend on short notice purchases authorized as part of an ongoing repurchase program. In fact, many companies apply the same "blackout period"—forbidding all trades—to corporate repurchases as they do for insider stock purchases by individuals. For example, a company may decide not to trade during a period that extends from 10 days before through two days after any earnings release.
http://www.aicpa.org/PUBS/jofa/may1999/mccarthy.htm
RE:
dmiller, regarding the limitations on buybacks, from various reads and sources, I had imformation that suggested the 48 hours after and the 2 weeks before earnings lock-out.
Posted by: badgerkid
In reply to: dmiller who wrote msg# 154350
Date: 5/5/2006 12:21:46 PM
Post # 154393
dmiller, regarding the limitations on buybacks, from various reads and sources, I had imformation that suggested the 48 hours after and the 2 weeks before earnings lock-out. By getting Nokia wedged in there, they should be able to fire with both barrels come Monday morning on their buy back with the usual restrictions of course.
IMHO of course.
|